FIFA AND DRAWING OF LOTS

Drawing of lots is a lottery in which participants blindly choose objects (such as stones, straws, coins, or dice) in order to make a random decision. It is won by luck, akin to tossing a coin.

DRAWING OF LOTS EXAMPLE:

If there is a task that must be done but has no volunteers, a group may decide who is to perform the task by casting lots. In a group of five, four dark-colored stones and one light-colored stone would be placed in an opaque bag. Each person would pick a stone, and it does not matter the order in which this occurs. The person who chose the single light-colored stone would be responsible for performing the task in question.

The FIFA World CUP finals tournament features 32 national teams competing over a month in the host nation(s). There are two stages: a group stage followed by a knockout stage.

In the group stage, teams compete within eight groups of four teams each. Eight teams are seeded (including the hosts, with the other teams selected using a formula based on both the FIFA World Rankings and performances in recent World Cups) and drawn to separate groups. The other teams are assigned to different “pots”, usually based on geographical criteria, and teams in each pot are drawn at random to the eight groups. Since 1998, constraints have been applied to the draw to ensure that no group contains more than two European teams or more than one team from any other confederation.

Each group plays a round-robin tournament, guaranteeing that every team will play at least three matches. The last round of matches of each group is scheduled at the same time to preserve fairness among all four teams. The top two teams from each group advance to the knockout stage. Points are used to rank the teams within a group. Since 1994, three points have been awarded for a win, one for a draw and none for a loss (prior to this, winners received two points rather than three). If two or more teams end up with the same number of points, tiebreakers are used: first is goal difference, then total goals scored, then head-to-head results, and finally drawing of lots (i.e. determining team positions at random) Whether or not divine intervention is invoked as the mechanism through which the casting of lots leads to decisions, the method has been recognized for millennia as a way of ensuring fairness in deciding difficult matters.

Yes, drawing of lots seems to be a fair way of ensuring fairness in deciding difficult matters. However, since it is beyond teams’ control I think it should only be used after ALL forms of tie-breakers have been applied. In the NFL they look at the strength of victories before they toss a coin. Should FIFA include strength of victory by using FIFA rankings before they draw lots?

Let’s look at an example:

During a round-robin tournament Group 1 consists of Teams A, B, C and D. On the FIFA World Rankings, Team A is ranked 1, Team B 5, Team C, 50 and Team D 103.

Results:

A vs. B 0-1 (A lost)
A vs. C 1-0 (A won)
A vs. D 0-0 (Draw)
B vs. C 1-0 (C won)
B vs. D 0-1 (D won)
C vs. D 0-0 (Draw)

Team B leads the group with 6 points.
Teams A and D are tied at 4 points.

What do you think is the best way to decide who should go to the next round between Teams A and D? Draw lots or factor in strength of victory?

FIFA uses the rankings for Team Seeding purposes so why not also use the rankings to break a tie?

Also see SOCCER AND COIN TOSSING